Anexo:Sondeos de opinión para las elecciones generales de Nueva Zelanda de 2023
Varias firmas encuestadoras han realizado encuestas de opinión durante el mandato del 53.er Parlamento de Nueva Zelanda (2020-2023) para las elecciones generales de Nueva Zelanda de 2023. Las encuestas regulares son las encuestas trimestrales producidas por Televisión Nueva Zelanda (1 News) realizadas por Kantar Public (anteriormente conocido como Colmar Brunton) y Discovery Nueva Zelanda (Newshub) realizadas por Reid Research, junto con encuestas mensuales por Roy Morgan Research y por Curia (Unión de Contribuyentes). El tamaño de la muestra, el margen de error y el intervalo de confianza de cada encuesta varían según la organización y la fecha.
El parlamento actual fue elegido el 17 de octubre de 2020. Las próximas elecciones generales están programadas para el 14 de octubre de 2023.[1]
Intención de voto[editar]
Gráficos[editar]
Gráfico de encuestas por partido político.
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Gráfico de encuestas por bloque.
Encuestas[editar]
Los resultados de la encuesta se enumeran en la tabla a continuación en orden cronológico inverso. La cifra porcentual más alta en cada encuesta se muestra en negrita, y el fondo sombreado en el color del partido que lidera. La columna "Diff." muestra la diferencia de puntos porcentuales entre los dos partidos con las cifras más altas. En el caso de un empate, ambos resultados están sombreadas y se muestran en negrita. Es posible que los porcentajes no sumen el 100 por ciento debido a que las encuestas no informan cifras para todos los partidos menores y debido al redondeo.
Los partidos que se muestran en la tabla están con sus siglas en inglés, son Laborista (LAB), Nacional (NAT), Verde (GRN), ACT, Maorí (TPM), Nueva Zelanda Primero (NZF), Oportunidades (TOP) y Nuevo Conservador (NCP). Otros partidos también pueden haberse registrado en algunas encuestas, pero no figuran en esta tabla.
| Fecha | Empresa encuestadora | Cantidad de encuestados | LAB | NAT | GRN | ACT | TPM | NZF | TOP | NCP | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2023 | Elecciones Generales | 2,254,441 | 26.9 | 38.9 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 2.6 | 6.4 | 2.0 | – | 12 |
| 31 Ago – 6 Sep 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1000 | 26.5 | 35 | 12.7 | 14.3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 8.5 |
| Ago 2023 | Roy Morgan | 1,046 | 24 | 31 | 12.5 | 18 | 4 | 5.5 | 2 | – | 7 |
| 28–30 Ago 2023 | The Post–Freshwater Strategy | 1,511 | 26 | 36 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 6 | – | – | 10 |
| 24–30 Ago 2023 | Talbot Mills | 30 | 36 | 12 | 10 | 2.4 | 5.4 | 1.5 | – | 6 | |
| 25 Ago 2023 | Talbot Mills | 32 | 34 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 6 | – | – | 2 | |
| 12–16 Ago 2023 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 29 | 37 | 12 | 13 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 8 |
| 3–8 Ago 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 27.1 | 34.9 | 12 | 13 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 1 | 0.6 | 7.8 |
| 31 Jul – 7 Ago 2023 | Talbot Mills | 1,012 | 32 | 35 | 10 | 11 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | – | 3 |
| 2–6 Ago 2023 | Essential | 1,163 | 29 | 34.5 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 2.5 | 5.3 | – | – | 5.5 |
| Jul 2023 | Roy Morgan | 937 | 26 | 33.5 | 9 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 4 | – | 7.5 |
| 26–31 Jul 2023 | Newshub–Reid Research | 32.3 | 36.6 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 4.3 | |
| 8–12 Jul 2023 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 33 | 35 | 10 | 12 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 2 |
| 2–10 Jul 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 31.1 | 33.3 | 8.9 | 13.2 | 5 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 2.2 |
| 28 Jun – 2 Jul 2023 | Talbot Mills | 1,036 | 31 | 36 | 8 | 12 | 4.2 | 4 | 2.9 | – | 5 |
| Jun 2023 | Roy Morgan | 955 | 30.5 | 30 | 9.5 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 3 | – | 0.5 |
| 30 May – 6 Jun 2023 | Talbot Mills | 1,001 | 36 | 35 | 7 | 11 | 3.65 | 2.9 | – | – | 1 |
| 31 May – 6 Jun 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 32.9 | 35.7 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 2.8 |
| May 2023 | Roy Morgan | 952 | 31 | 31.5 | 12 | 13.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 20–24 May 2023 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,002 | 35 | 37 | 7 | 11 | 2.4 | 3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 2 |
| 12–17 May 2023 | Horizon Research | 1,563 | 34.4 | 26.5 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 7.9 |
| 5–11 May 2023 | Newshub–Reid Research | 35.9 | 35.3 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 3.5 | 3 | 2 | – | 0.6 | |
| 2–7 May 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33.8 | 35.6 | 7 | 12.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 27 Abr – 3 May 2023 | Talbot Mills | 1,046 | 33 | 36 | 9 | 10 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | – | 3 |
| Abr 2023 | Roy Morgan | 929 | 30 | 32 | 12 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2 | 0.5 | 2 |
| 2–5 Abr 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 36.9 | 36.5 | 6.7 | 9.5 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 30 Mar – 5 Abr 2023 | Talbot Mills | 36 | 36 | 9 | 10 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 0.8 | – | Empate | |
| Mar 2023 | Roy Morgan | 943 | 33 | 32 | 10.5 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 3.5 | 1 | 1 |
| 1–9 Mar 2023 | Talbot Mills | 1,021 | 37 | 34 | 8 | 12 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.5 | – | 3 |
| 4–8 Mar 2023 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,002 | 36 | 34 | 11 | 11 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1 | 0.5 | 2 |
| 2–7 Mar 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 35.5 | 34.8 | 5.7 | 9.3 | 1.4 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| feb-23 | Roy Morgan | 943 | 33 | 32 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 3.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
| 2–9 Feb 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2 | 0.8 | Empate |
| 26–31 Ene 2023 | Talbot Mills | 33 | 36 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 3.4 | 2.3 | – | 3 | |
| 25–29 Ene 2023 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,008 | 38 | 37 | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1 |
| 23–28 Ene 2023 | Horizon Research | 1,147 | 30.8 | 25.4 | 7.7 | 11.4 | 2.89 | 4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 5.4 |
| 22–27 Ene 2023 | Newshub–Reid Research | 38 | 36.6 | 8.1 | 10.7 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.5 | – | 1.4 | |
| 22-ene-23 | Chris Hipkins es elegido por unanimidad líder del Partido Laborista y Primer Ministro de Nueva Zelanda | ||||||||||
| 19-ene-23 | Jacinda Ardern anuncia su renuncia como líder del Partido Laborista y Primera Ministra de Nueva Zelanda | ||||||||||
| 10–16 Ene 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 31.7 | 37.2 | 10.6 | 10.8 | 1.6 | 2.8 | – | – | 5.5 |
| ene-23 | Roy Morgan | 948 | 30 | 32 | 12 | 13.5 | 4.5 | 5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2 |
| 10-dic-22 | Tama Potaka del Partido Nacional gana las elecciones parciales del oeste de Hamilton | ||||||||||
| 1–6 Dic 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33.1 | 39.4 | 8.1 | 10.4 | 3.5 | 2.9 | – | – | 6.3 |
| dic-22 | Talbot Mills | 32 | 35 | 9 | 11 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.4 | – | 3 | |
| dic-22 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 27.5 | 35 | 11 | 14.5 | 4 | 4 | 2.5 | 1 | 7.5 |
| 26–30 Nov 2022 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,011 | 33 | 38 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 5 |
| 3–8 Nov 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 35.3 | 37.6 | 7.8 | 9.9 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 2.3 |
| nov-22 | Roy Morgan | 926 | 25.5 | 39 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 13.5 |
| 31 Oct – 7 Nov 2022 | Talbot Mills | 34 | 35 | 9 | 10 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 2 | – | 1 | |
| 25 Oct – 3 Nov 2022 | Newshub–Reid Research | 32.3 | 40.7 | 9.5 | 10 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | – | 8.4 | |
| 20–25 Oct 2022 | Horizon Research | 911 | 31.4 | 28.3 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 1.8 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3.05 |
| 2–11 Oct 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 34.4 | 39.2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 1 | 4.8 |
| oct-22 | Roy Morgan | 951 | 29 | 32 | 15.5 | 12.5 | 3 | 3.5 | 3 | 0.5 | 3 |
| oct-22 | Talbot Mills | 35 | 35 | 9 | 11 | 2.2 | 4 | – | – | Empate | |
| sep-22 | Roy Morgan | 942 | 29.5 | 36 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 3.5 | 1 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 6.5 |
| 17–21 Sep 2022 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,001 | 34 | 37 | 9 | 9 | 1.6 | 3 | 1.3 | 1 | 3 |
| 1–9 Sep 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33.4 | 37 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 3.6 |
| 31 Ago – 7 Sep 2022 | Talbot Mills | 35 | 38 | 8 | 9 | 3 | – | – | – | 3 | |
| ago-22 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 35 | 35.5 | 9 | 10.5 | 5 | 1.5 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 3–11 Ago 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,200 | 35.2 | 34 | 9.5 | 11 | 3.5 | 2.6 | – | – | 1.2 |
| 28 Jul – 8 Ago 2022 | Talbot Mills | 36 | 37 | 9 | 10 | – | – | – | – | 1 | |
| 30 Jul – 3 Ago 2022 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,023 | 33 | 37 | 9 | 11 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 4 |
| 29 Jul – 3 Ago 2022 | Horizon Research | 1,044 | 34.1 | 31.4 | 10.2 | 10.7 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| jul-22 | Roy Morgan | 937 | 34 | 35 | 10.5 | 11 | 4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 |
| 3–10 Jul 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,200 | 34.7 | 37 | 8.5 | 10 | 3.7 | 2.8 | – | – | 2.3 |
| 30 May – 26 Jun 2022 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 33.5 | 39 | 10 | 9.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 0.5 | 5.5 |
| 18-jun-22 | Sam Uffindell del Partido Nacional gana las elecciones parciales de Tauranga | ||||||||||
| 1–12 Jun 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,200 | 34.2 | 37.4 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 3.2 |
| 2–10 Jun 2022 | Talbot Mills | 1,200 | 36 | 35 | 10 | 8 | 3.1 | 3.3 | – | – | 1 |
| 26 Abr – 22 May 2022 | Roy Morgan | 934 | 31.5 | 40 | 11.5 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 8.5 |
| 21–25 May 2022 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,002 | 35 | 39 | 10 | 7 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 4 |
| 4–11 May 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 34.2 | 36.8 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2.6 |
| 29 Abr – 10 May 2022 | Talbot Mills | 37 | 36 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 4 | – | – | 1 | |
| 18–27 Abr 2022 | Newshub–Reid Research | 1,000 | 38.2 | 40.5 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 2.3 |
| 28 Mar – 24 Abr 2022 | Roy Morgan | 918 | 33.5 | 37.5 | 10.5 | 10 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 0.5 | 4 |
| 7–13 Abr 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 36.8 | 37.8 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.7 | – | – | 1 |
| 28 Feb – 27 Mar 2022 | Roy Morgan | 944 | 32 | 38 | 10.5 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 6 |
| 2–7, 14–15 Mar 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 36.2 | 35.3 | 12.4 | 11.2 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| 5–8 Mar 2022 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,000 | 37 | 39 | 9 | 8 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 2 |
| 31 Ene – 27 Feb 2022 | Roy Morgan | 963 | 32 | 38 | 11 | 11.5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 1–10 Feb 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 42.3 | 38.4 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | – | 3.9 |
| 22 Ene – 4 Feb 2022 | Newshub–Reid Research | 1,000 | 44.3 | 31.3 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 13 |
| 4–30 Ene 2022 | Roy Morgan | 951 | 33 | 35 | 10.5 | 13.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2 |
| 22–26 Ene 2022 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,000 | 40 | 32 | 9 | 11 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1 | 8 |
| 10–17 Ene 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 41.2 | 33.0 | 10.7 | 11.5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | – | 8.2 |
| 22 Nov – 19 Dic 2021 | Roy Morgan | 967 | 35.5 | 31.5 | 8.5 | 18.5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 4 |
| 1–8 Dic 2021 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 39.5 | 32.6 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 3.0 | 2.3 | – | – | 6.9 |
| 30-nov-21 | Christopher Luxon es elegido líder del Partido Nacional con Nicola Willis como líder adjunta | ||||||||||
| 25-nov-21 | Judith Collins es destituida como líder del Partido Nacional en una moción de censura. Shane Reti es nombrado líder interino | ||||||||||
| 25 Oct – 21 Nov 2021 | Roy Morgan | 951 | 36 | 26.5 | 10.5 | 17.5 | 3 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 9.5 |
| 10–17 Nov 2021 | Newshub–Reid Research | 1,000 | 42.7 | 26.9 | 7.2 | 16 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 15.8 |
| 6–10 Nov 2021 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,001 | 41 | 28 | 9 | 14 | 0.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 13 |
| 1–8 Nov 2021 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 39.3 | 26.2 | 8.6 | 15.9 | 2.3 | 1.7 | – | – | 13.1 |
| 29 Oct – 3 Nov 2021 | Labour–Talbot Mills | 1,023 | 41 | 24 | 9 | 17 | 2.4 | 4.2 | – | – | 17 |
| 27 Sep – 24 Oct 2021 | Roy Morgan | 929 | 39.5 | 26 | 10.5 | 16 | 2 | 2.5 | 1 | 1.5 | 13.5 |
| 3–11 Oct 2021 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 44.8 | 22.5 | 6.4 | 16.6 | 1.5 | 3.6 | – | – | 22.3 |
| 28 Sep – 5 Oct 2021 | Labour–Talbot Mills | 1,200+ | 46 | 22 | 7 | 16 | 1.9 | 3.8 | – | – | 24 |
| 30 Ago – 26 Sep 2021 | Roy Morgan | 940 | 45.5 | 23 | 9.5 | 16 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | – | 22.5 |
| 22–26 Sep 2021 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,001 | 43 | 26 | 8 | 14 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 17 |
| 5–9 Sep 2021 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 45.8 | 21.3 | 9.6 | 14.9 | 1.2 | 2.7 | – | – | 24.5 |
| 31 Ago – 6 Sep 2021 | Labour–Talbot Mills | 1,050 | 45 | 26 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 4.1 | – | – | 19 |
| 26 Jul – 22 Ago 2021 | Roy Morgan | 940 | 39.5 | 25 | 12 | 13 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2 | – | 14.5 |
| 21 Jul – 1 Ago 2021 | Labour–Talbot Mills | 1,216 | 43 | 28 | 7 | 13 | 1.7 | 4.4 | – | – | 15 |
| 22–29 Jul 2021 | Newshub–Reid Research | 1,000 | 43.0 | 28.7 | 8.5 | 11.1 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 14.3 |
| 28 Jun – 25 Jul 2021 | Roy Morgan | 945 | 39.5 | 29 | 10 | 13 | 2.5 | 2 | 3 | – | 10.5 |
| 24 Jun – 1 Jul 2021 | Labour–Talbot Mills | 1,199 | 48 | 24 | 8 | 11 | 1.5 | 5 | – | – | 24 |
| 31 May – 27 Jun 2021 | Roy Morgan | 927 | 38.5 | 29.5 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2 | – | 9 |
| 22–26 May 2021 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,002 | 46 | 29 | 8 | 9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 17 |
| 26 Abr – 23 May 2021 | Roy Morgan | 932 | 45 | 28.5 | 11 | 9 | 1.5 | 2 | 1.5 | – | 16.5 |
| 7–13 May 2021 | Newshub–Reid Research | 1,000 | 52.7 | 27.0 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 25.7 |
| 29 Mar – 25 Abr 2021 | Roy Morgan | 933 | 41.5 | 29.5 | 13.5 | 9 | 2.5 | 1 | 0.5 | – | 12 |
| 21–28 Mar 2021 | Roy Morgan | 924 | 45.5 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 2.5 | 2 | – | 22.5 |
| 9–13 Mar 2021 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,006 | 49 | 27 | 9 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 22 |
| 25 Ene – 21 Feb 2021 | Roy Morgan | 924 | 45 | 29 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 1 | 1.5 | 1 | – | 16 |
| 4–24 Ene 2021 | Roy Morgan | 937 | 47 | 25 | 11.5 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | – | 22 |
| 23 Nov – 13 Dic 2020 | Roy Morgan | 923 | 44 | 28 | 10.5 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | – | 16 |
| 28 Nov – 2 Dic 2020 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,004 | 53 | 25 | 8 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 28 |
| 26 Oct – 22 Nov 2020 | Roy Morgan | 939 | 44 | 25.5 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | – | 18.5 |
| 17 Oct 2020 | Resultado de las elecciones de 2020[2] | 50.0 | 25.6 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 24.4 | |
| Fecha | Empresa encuestadora | Cantidad de encuestados | LAB | NAT | GRN | ACT | TPM | NZF | TOP | NCP | Diff. |
Encuestas de Primer Ministro[editar]
Gráfico[editar]
Primer Ministro preferido[editar]
| Fecha | Empresa encuestadora | Cantidad de encuestados | Hipkins | Luxon | Seymour | Peters | Ardern | Collins | Diff. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28–30 Ago 2023 | The Post–Freshwater Strategy | 1,511 | 45 | 43 | – | – | – | – | 2 | ||
| 24–30 Ago 2023 | Talbot Mills | 28 | 26 | 11 | - | - | - | 2 | |||
| 12–16 Ago 2023 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 21 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0.2 | 1 | ||
| 3–8 Ago 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 25 | 25 | 7 | 7 | – | – | Empate | ||
| 31 Jul – 7 Ago 2023 | Talbot Mills | 1,012 | 34 | 24 | - | - | - | - | 10 | ||
| 26–31 Jul 2023 | Newshub–Reid Research | 24 | 15.9 | 10.9 | 4.3 | – | – | 8.1 | |||
| 8–12 Jul 2023 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 24 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 1 | – | 4 | ||
| 2–10 Jul 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 23 | 20 | 6 | 3.6 | 8 | - | 3 | ||
| 28 Jun – 2 Jul 2023 | Talbot Mills | 1,036 | 32 | 21 | - | - | - | - | 11 | ||
| 31 May – 6 Jun 2023 | Taxpayers' Union Curia | 1,000 | 29 | 23 | 7 | 2.8 | 9 | - | 6 | ||
| 20–24 May 2023 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,002 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0.1 | 7 | ||
| 5–11 May 2023 | Newshub–Reid Research | 23.4 | 16.4 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 8.5 | – | 7 | |||
| 27 Abr – 3 May 2023 | Talbot Mills | 1,046 | 32 | 25 | – | – | – | – | 7 | ||
| 30 Mar – 5 Abr 2023 | Talbot Mills | 36 | 24 | 11 | – | – | – | 12 | |||
| 1–9 Mar 2023 | Talbot Mills | 1,021 | 39 | 23 | – | – | – | – | 16 | ||
| 4–8 Mar 2023 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,002 | 27 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0.2 | 10 | ||
| 2–7 Mar 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 30 | 21 | 8 | – | 7 | – | 9 | ||
| 1–9 Feb 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 30 | 26 | 8 | 3.5 | 9 | – | 4 | ||
| 26–31 Ene 2023 | Talbot Mills | 35 | 27 | 9 | – | – | – | 8 | |||
| 25–29 Ene 2023 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,008 | 23 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0.3 | 1 | ||
| 22–27 Ene 2023 | Newshub–Reid Research | 19.6 | 18.8 | 8 | 2.9 | 12.4 | – | 0.8 | |||
| 22-ene-23 | Chris Hipkins es elegido por unanimidad líder del Partido Laborista y Primer Ministro de Nueva Zelanda | ||||||||||
| 19-ene-23 | Jacinda Ardern anuncia su renuncia como líder del Partido Laborista y Primera Ministra de Nueva Zelanda | ||||||||||
| 1–6 Dic 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 26.3 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 35.3 | — | 9 | |||
| 26–30 Nov 2022 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,011 | 0.2 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 29 | 0.1 | 6 | ||
| 3–8 Nov 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 21.1 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 35 | — | 13.9 | |||
| 31 Oct – 7 Nov 2022 | Talbot Mills | 24 | — | – | 40 | – | 16 | ||||
| 25 Oct – 3 Nov 2022 | Newshub–Reid Research | 21.5 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 29.9 | – | 8.4 | ||||
| 2–11 Oct 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 22.5 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 32.9 | — | 10.4 | |||
| 17–21 Sep 2022 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,001 | 0.2 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 30 | 0.1 | 9 | ||
| 1–9 Sep 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 25.9 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 36.5 | — | 10.6 | |||
| 31 Ago – 7 Sep 2022 | Talbot Mills | 26 | — | – | 38 | – | 12 | ||||
| 3–11 Ago 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,200 | 19.5 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 39.5 | — | 20 | |||
| 28 Jul – 8 Ago 2022 | Talbot Mills | 26 | 9 | – | 39 | – | 13 | ||||
| 30 Jul – 3 Ago 2022 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,023 | 0.2 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 0.2 | 8 | ||
| 3–10 Jul 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,200 | 22.4 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 41.2 | — | 18.8 | |||
| 1–12 Jun 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,200 | 28 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 39.7 | — | 11.7 | |||
| 2–10 Jun 2022 | Talbot Mills | 1,200 | 29 | 8 | 42 | 13 | |||||
| 21–25 May 2022 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,002 | – | 25 | 3 | 1 | 33 | 0.1 | 8 | ||
| 4–11 May 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 27.9 | – | – | 35.1 | — | 7.2 | |||
| 18–27 Abr 2022 | Newshub–Reid Research | 23.9 | 5.1 | — | 36.3 | – | 12.4 | ||||
| 7–13 Abr 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 28.6 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 36.3 | — | 7.7 | |||
| 2–7, 14–15 Mar 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 26.6 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 38.7 | — | 12.1 | |||
| 5–8 Mar 2022 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,000 | 0.3 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 34 | 0.3 | 9 | ||
| 1–10 Feb 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 28.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 38.9 | 1.5 | 10.4 | |||
| 22 Ene – 4 Feb 2022 | Newshub–Reid Research | 17.8 | 7.9 | — | 43.3 | – | 25.5 | ||||
| 22–26 Ene 2022 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,000 | 0.1 | 17 | 6 | 1.0 | 35 | 0.2 | 18 | ||
| 10–17 Ene 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 18.4 | 8.4 | 0.9 | 37.5 | 3.8 | 19.1 | |||
| 1–8 Dic 2021 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 20.4 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 39.1 | 0.8 | 18.7 | |||
| 30-nov-21 | Christopher Luxon es elegido líder del Partido Nacional | ||||||||||
| 25-nov-21 | Judith Collins es destituida como líder del Partido Nacional en una moción de censura | ||||||||||
| 10–17 Nov 2021 | Newshub–Reid Research | 1,000 | 2.5 | 11.9 | — | 41.7 | 6.1 | 29.8 | |||
| 6–10 Nov 2021 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,001 | – | 4 | 11 | 1 | 39 | 5 | 28 | ||
| 1–8 Nov 2021 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 4.1 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 34 | 6.3 | 23.5 | |||
| 29 Oct – 3 Nov 2021 | Talbot Mills | 1,023 | 2 | 15 | — | 47 | 10 | 32 | |||
| 3–11 Oct 2021 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 2.3 | 12.3 | 1.3 | 47.2 | 5.2 | 34.9 | |||
| 28 Sep – 5 Oct 2021 | Talbot Mills | 1,200+ | – | 16 | — | 51 | 9 | 35 | |||
| 22–26 Sep 2021 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,001 | 0.1 | 3 | 11 | 0.7 | 44 | 5 | 33 | ||
| 5–9 Sep 2021 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 3.3 | 9.3 | 1.5 | 50.8 | 4.4 | 41.5 | |||
| 31 Ago – 6 Sep 2021 | Talbot Mills | 1,050 | 1.3 | 14 | — | 55 | 13 | 41 | |||
| 21 Jul – 1 Ago 2021 | Talbot Mills | 1,216 | 2.1 | 14 | — | 50 | 11 | 36 | |||
| 22–29 Jul 2021 | Newshub–Reid Research | 1,000 | – | 8.6 | — | 45.5 | 8.2 | 36.9 | |||
| 24 Jun – 1 Jul 2021 | Talbot Mills | 1,199 | – | 12 | — | 55 | 10 | 43 | |||
| 22–26 May 2021 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,002 | – | 3 | 6 | 1 | 48 | 9 | 39 | ||
| 7–13 May 2021 | Newshub–Reid Research | 1,000 | 2.4 | — | — | 48.1 | 5.6 | 42.5 | |||
| 9–13 Mar 2021 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,006 | – | 2 | 4 | 0.7 | 43 | 8 | 35 | ||
| 28 Nov – 2 Dic 2020 | 1 News–Kantar Public | 1,004 | 0.3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 58 | 12 | 46 | ||
Aprobación del Gobierno[editar]
Gobierno de Chris Hipkin[editar]
| Fecha | Empresa encuestadora | Cantidad de encuestados | Dirección correscta | Dirección incorrecta | N/S | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2023 | Roy Morgan | 1,046 | 32 | 56 | 12 | 23 |
| 28–30 Aug 2023 | The Post–Freshwater Strategy | 1,511 | 21 | 63 | 15 | 42 |
| 31 Jul – 7 Aug 2023 | Talbot Mills | 1,012 | 37 | 55 | 8 | 18 |
| 2–6 Aug 2023 | Essential | 1,163 | 31 | 55 | 14 | 24 |
| Jul 2023 | Roy Morgan | 937 | 29 | 60.5 | 10.5 | 31.5 |
| 2–10 Jul 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 22.1 | 64.5 | 13.4 | 42.4 |
| Jun 2023 | Roy Morgan | 955 | 38 | 54 | 8 | 16 |
| May 2023 | Roy Morgan | 952 | 34.5 | 54.5 | 11 | 20 |
| 27 Apr – 3 May 2023 | Talbot Mills | 1,046 | 40 | 52 | 8 | 12 |
| Apr 2023 | Roy Morgan | 929 | 35 | 55 | 10 | 20 |
| Mar 2023 | Roy Morgan | 945 | 38.5 | 52.5 | 9 | 14 |
| Feb 2023 | Roy Morgan | 943 | 42.5 | 47.5 | 10 | 5 |
Gobierno de Jacinda Ardern[editar]
| Fecha | Empresa encuestadora | Cantidad de encuestados | Dirección correscta | Dirección incorrecta | N/S | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ene-23 | Roy Morgan | 948 | 40 | 49 | 11 | 9 |
| dic-22 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 32 | 57 | 11 | 25 |
| nov-22 | Roy Morgan | 926 | 35 | 55 | 10 | 20 |
| 31 Oct – 7 Nov 2022 | Talbot Mills | 41 | 49 | 10 | 8 | |
| oct-22 | Roy Morgan | 951 | 42 | 50 | 8 | 8 |
| 2–11 Oct 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 29 | 56 | 15 | 27 |
| sep-22 | Roy Morgan | 942 | 37.5 | 51.5 | 11 | 14 |
| 1–9 Sep 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 32 | 54 | 14 | 22 |
| 31 Ago – 7 Sep 2022 | Talbot Mills | 44 | 49 | 7 | 5 | |
| ago-22 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 37.5 | 53 | 9.5 | 15.5 |
| 28 Jul – 8 Ago 2022 | Talbot Mills | 42 | 50 | 8 | 8 | |
| jul-22 | Roy Morgan | 937 | 40.5 | 51 | 8.5 | 10.5 |
| 30 May – 26 Jun 2022 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 39 | 51.5 | 9.5 | 12.5 |
| 1–12 Jun 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,200 | 36 | 50 | 14 | 14 |
| 2–10 Jun 2022 | Talbot Mills | 1,200 | 50 | 42 | 8 | 8 |
| 26 Abr – 22 May 2022 | Roy Morgan | 934 | 40 | 50 | 10 | 10 |
| 4–11 May 2022 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 34 | 48 | 18 | 14 |
| 29 Abr – 10 May 2022 | Talbot Mills | 51 | 40 | 9 | 11 | |
| 28 Mar – 24 Abr 2022 | Roy Morgan | 913 | 43 | 49.5 | 7.5 | 6.5 |
| 28 Feb – 27 Mar 2022 | Roy Morgan | 944 | 39 | 51.5 | 9.5 | 12.5 |
| 31 Ene – 27 Feb 2022 | Roy Morgan | 963 | 42.5 | 47.5 | 10 | 5 |
| 4–30 Ene 2022 | Roy Morgan | 951 | 48.5 | 42 | 9.5 | 6.5 |
| 22 Nov – 19 Dic 2021 | Roy Morgan | 967 | 42.5 | 44.5 | 13 | 2 |
| 25 Oct – 21 Nov 2021 | Roy Morgan | 951 | 46 | 44.5 | 9.5 | 1.5 |
| 1–8 Nov 2021 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 44 | 45 | 11 | 1 |
| 27 Sep – 24 Oct 2021 | Roy Morgan | 929 | 48 | 38.5 | 13.5 | 9.5 |
| 28 Sep – 5 Oct 2021 | Talbot Mills | 1,200 | 63 | 30 | 7 | 33 |
| 30 Ago – 26 Sep 2021 | Roy Morgan | 940 | 57 | 32 | 11 | 25 |
| 26 Jul – 22 Ago 2021 | Roy Morgan | 940 | 52.5 | 37.5 | 10 | 15 |
| 28 Jun – 25 Jul 2021 | Roy Morgan | 945 | 55.5 | 34.5 | 10 | 21 |
| 31 May – 27 Jun 2021 | Roy Morgan | 927 | 57 | 33 | 10 | 24 |
| 26 Abr – 23 May 2021 | Roy Morgan | 932 | 62.5 | 28.5 | 9 | 34 |
| 29 Mar – 25 Abr 2021 | Roy Morgan | 933 | 62.5 | 26.5 | 11 | 36 |
| 21–28 Mar 2021 | Roy Morgan | 924 | 61.5 | 26 | 12.5 | 35.5 |
| 25 Ene – 21 Feb 2021 | Roy Morgan | 924 | 69.5 | 20 | 10.5 | 49.5 |
| 4–24 Ene 2021 | Roy Morgan | 937 | 71.5 | 18.5 | 10 | 53 |
| 23 Nov – 13 Dic 2020 | Roy Morgan | 923 | 71.5 | 18 | 10.5 | 53.5 |
| 26 Oct – 22 Nov 2020 | Roy Morgan | 939 | 69.5 | 20 | 10.5 | 49.5 |
Pronósticos[editar]
| Fuente | Escaños en el Parlamento | Pronóstico de formación gubernamental | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAB | NAT | GRN | ACT | TPM | NZF | Total | ||
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[3] 31 Aug–6 Sep 2023 poll |
34 | 46 | 17 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT (65) |
| Roy Morgan[4] Aug 2023 poll |
30 | 39 | 16 | 23 | 5 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT (62) |
| The Post/Freshwater Strategy[5] 28–30 Aug 2023 poll |
34 | 46 | 15 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Talbot Mills[6] 24–30 Aug 2023 poll |
37 | 45 | 15 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| 1 News Verian[7] 12–16 Aug 2023 poll |
37 | 48 | 15 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT (65) |
| Guardian Essential[8] 2–6 Aug 2023 poll |
38 | 46 | 11 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT (61) |
| Newshub–Reid Research[9] 26–31 Jul 2023 poll |
42 | 47 | 12 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT (63) |
| Horizon Research[10] 12–17 de mayo de 2023 poll |
45 | 34 | 12 | 16 | 6 | 7 | 120 | Labour–Green–Māori (63) |
| 1 News–Kantar Public[11] Encuesta del 4–8 Mar 2023 |
46 | 43 | 14 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 120 | LAB–GRN–TPM (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[12] Encuesta del 2–7 Mar 2023 |
49 | 48 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 120 | NAT–ACT (61) |
| Roy Morgan Research[13] Encuesta de Feb 2023 |
42 | 41 | 16 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 120 | LAB–GRN–TPM (62) |
| Talbot Mills[14] 26–31 Jan 2023 poll |
43 | 46 | 14 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 120 | LAB–GRN–TPM (61) |
| 1 News–Kantar Public[15] Encuesta del 25–29 Ene 2023 |
49 | 47 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 120 | Empate |
| Horizon Research[16] Encuesta del 23–28 Jan 2023 |
47 | 39 | 12 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 120 | LAB–GRN–TPM (63) |
| Newshub–Reid Research[17] Encuesta del 22–27 Jan 2023 |
48 | 46 | 10 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 120 | Empate |
| Resultados de 2020[18] Elecciones del 17 Oct 2020 |
65 | 33 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 120 | LAB (65) |
Referencias[editar]
- ↑ «'I no longer have enough in the tank': Jacinda Ardern resigns as New Zealand prime minister». ABC News (en inglés australiano). 19 de enero de 2023. Consultado el 13 de marzo de 2023.
- ↑ «2020 GENERAL ELECTION – OFFICIAL RESULTS AND STATISTICS». ElectionResults.govt.nz. Comisión electoral. Consultado el 28 de febrero de 2021.
- ↑ Coughlan, Thomas (8 de septiembre de 2023). «Election 2023: Labour polls at 27pc in Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll for September». New Zealand Herald.
- ↑ «New Zealand: National/Act NZ up 1.5% to 49% in August and on course for victory at next month’s election». Roy Morgan. 5 de septiembre de 2023.
- ↑ Vance, Andrea (7 de septiembre de 2023). «Labour slumps to new poll low but numbers offer some comfort». The Post.
- ↑ Coughlan, Thomas (7 de septiembre de 2023). «Election 2023: Support for Chris Hipkins plummets, as Labour hits new low in poll». New Zealand Herald.
- ↑ «August - 2023 - 1 News Verian Poll Report Nonsupplementary Question Version (002)». 1 News–Verian. 21 de agosto de 2023.
- ↑ «Guardian Essential poll New Zealand: National holds clear lead over Labour as election nears». Guardian Essential. 8 Aug 2023.
- ↑ Lynch, Jenna (2 de agosto de 2023). «Newshub-Reid Research poll results: Labour in downward spiral as public sends party decisive message after scandals». Newshub.
- ↑ «Labour and Greens could form a government». Horizon Research. 22 de mayo de 2023.
- ↑ Desmarais, Felix (13 de marzo de 2023). «Poll: Labour could lead coalition govt, Luxon slumps in PM ratings». 1 News (TVNZ).
- ↑ Purves, Callum. «Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: March 2023». Taxpayers' Union.
- ↑ «New Zealand: Labour/Greens level with National/Act NZ on 45.5% each after Chris Hipkins becomes Prime Minister». Roy Morgan Research. 10 de marzo de 2023.
- ↑ Coughlan, Thomas (9 de febrero de 2023). «National ahead of Labour in latest poll, but Labour could form government». New Zealand Herald.
- ↑ Desmarais, Felix (30 de enero de 2023). «First poll results with Chris Hipkins as PM revealed». 1 News (TVNZ).
- ↑ Manch, Thomas (11 de febrero de 2023). «Labour leads, Māori Party the kingmaker in latest poll». Stuff.
- ↑ Lynch, Jenna (30 de enero de 2023). «Newshub-Reid Research Poll: Chris Hipkins is Labour's saviour but hung Parliament on cards for election 2023». Newshub.
- ↑ «2020 GENERAL ELECTION – OFFICIAL RESULTS AND STATISTICS». ElectionResults.govt.nz. Electoral Commission. Consultado el 28 de febrero de 2021.