English: Restructuring of marine plankton assemblages under global warming

Global patterns of annual mean species richness (in % of species modeled) of plankton (first row), phytoplankton (second row) and zooplankton (third row) in the contemporary surface ocean (left two columns) and their projected changes for the 2081–2100 period under the representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 scenario (right two columns).

a, b The annual mean species richness for all 860 phyto- and zooplankton species modeled. Shown is the mean richness across all 16 ensemble members (4 species distribution models and 4 predictor pools), c, d same as a–b but for the 336 modeled phytoplankton species. e, f same as a, b, but for the 524 zooplankton species. a–e show the zonal averages separately for each of the four statistical models. g, h the percentage difference in species richness induced by future climate change for all plankton species. Shown is the mean across all 80 ensemble members (4 species distribution models, 4 predictor pools, 5 earth system models. I, j same as g, h but for phytoplankton. k, l same as g, h but for zooplankton. h–l show the corresponding zonal averages in percentage difference for each of the 5 earth system models. The gray contour lines represent the isopleths for 50 units of mean annual species richness in b–f and for 25% of species richness difference in g–k. Regions in darker red highlight gains in annual SR larger than 50%. Stippling in g–k marks the regions where at least 90% of the 80 ensemble agree on the direction of the change. Hatching marks the region where non-analog conditions emerge in the future ocean on an annual scale. Total sample size is N = 35,023 grid cells.